Intelligence Analysis Essay - 2050 Words

I. INTRODUCTION: The United States Intelligence community draws on advanced technology and analytical techniques. An intelligence process that sets objectives, collects, analyzes, and report findings, with feedback loops integrated throughout. Explicitly, the intelligence community advantages technology and tradecraft within a proscribed process. However, estimation of threats and decision-making are outcomes of human thinking. Analysts and policymakers create mental models, or short cuts to manage complex, changing environments. In other words, to make sense of ambiguous or uncertain situations, humans form cognitive biases. Informed because of personal experience, education, and specifically applied to intelligence analysis, Davis†¦show more content†¦As such, actor ‘A’ projects an image or cognitive bias onto actor ‘B’ as if actor ‘B’ would see the world, or approach a problem in the same way as actor ‘A’ (George and Bru ce 2008, 315). III. HISTORICAL EXAMPLES OF MIRROR IMAGING: In the often-cited work, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Heuer provides many examples that apply cognitive psychology to explain how biases trap analysts’ judgments. In Chapter Six, Heuer calls upon Admiral Jeremiah’s comments on the surprise Indian nuclear test in 1998, and quotes Admiral Jeremiah explicitly concerning mirror imaging as, â€Å"everybody-thinks-like-us mind-set† (Heuer 1998, Chapter Six). Particularly concerning why the Indian nuclear test was such a surprise, Heuer explains a faulty assumption held by the United States. In that, the United States economic sanctions would deter an Indian nuclear test. A more recent example of bias is toward China. Johnston recalls the 1998 Tiananmen Square massacre of Chinese student’s pro-Democracy rallies. The prevailing mind-set was, according to Johnston, â€Å"any right minded person in China would support democracy† (Johnston 2005, 76). The prev ailing assumption was Chinese elites would negotiate with the protesters, rather than risk any unwarranted violent military action that risked international backlash. However, Johnston notes, â€Å"I was wrong† (Johnston 2005, 77). Johnston offers as reason, the lack of proper context of understanding Chinese culture, andShow MoreRelatedEssay on Intelligence Analysis584 Words   |  3 PagesEmbassy in a foreign country and said that they know someone was going to use a plane to destroy New York in two days, could this have stopped the attack? Intelligence Analysis puts the raw sources of information together, make predictions based on the data, and finally publish the results. Stephane Lefebvre wrote that â€Å" intelligence analysis is the process of evaluating and transforming raw data acquired covertly into descriptions, explanations, and judgments for policy consumers† (236). 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